Reinfection Probabilities

Interpretation

• Daily reinfection rate (ρ): 0.0001
• Annual reinfection probability: 3.6%
• Each year, about 3.6% of recovered individuals lose immunity and become susceptible again.

Reasons for Reinfection

• Waning immunity,
• Incomplete treatment or recovery,
• Persistent exposure in endemic settings.

Ten years prediction

• Over a 10-year period, this reinfection flow is eliminated